新能源产业发展的技术开发动因

Technology Development Motivation of New Energy Industry

基于能源替代动态博弈视阀,建立双寡头厂商博弈模型,采用数值模拟,探究新能源产业发展的技术开发动因。结果发现:(1)新能源产业发展的能源总产出增长率主要取决技术积累效应和市场博弈效应的大小,而能源折旧率抑制新能源产业发展,能源替代率则相反;(2)在能源市场中,总存有稳态路径让知识资本和R&D投入促使新能源产业发展趋向鞍点均衡;(3)技术开发是知识资本和R&D投入增长的动力,正向调节新能源产业发展,促使新能源产量较高于传统化石能源剩余储量和价格较低于传统化石能源价格。因此,为发力新能源产业发展,应加快技术开发的开发创新,提高知识资本和R&D投入支持。

The game model of the two oligopoly firms is established in order to use numerical simulation to explore the technology development motivation on the innovation of new energy industry based on the dynamic game of the energy substitution.The result shows as follows:Firstly,new energy industry innovation energy output growth rate mainly depends on the technology accumulation effect and the size of the market game effect,while the energy depreciation rate inhibits the new energy industry innovation,contrast to the energy substitution rate ;Secondly,there is a steady path for the knowledge capital and R&D investment to promote the new energy industry innovation trend and reach the saddle point equilibrium;Third- ly,technical improvement is the power of knowledge capital investment and R&D growth,regulating new energy industry innovation positively,promoting new energy yield higher than the traditional fossil energy reserves,and remaining price lower than the traditional fossil energy prices.