基于环境承载力的城市生活垃圾产生量调控研究——基于GRA-Markov-GM模型

Study on Regulation of Municipal Solid Waste Generation Volume Based on Environmental Carrying Capacity: Based on GRA-Markov-GM Model

城市生活垃圾是衡量城市环境承载力的重要指标。从城市环境承载力研究入手,运用灰色关联分析,提出以城市人口为主的因素是城市生活垃圾产生量的主要影响因素,并利用GM-Markov修正模型,预测了上海市2030年内的城市生活垃圾产生量及城市环境承载力。结果表明:2030年上海市城市生活垃圾产生量将达到1 097.95万吨,并且发生概率为20%。最后针对上述分析,对上海市城市规划提出几点对策与建议,从而为做好上海市城市生活垃圾的总量控制和减量化工作提供科学的指导。

With the rapid growth of urban population and the rapid expansion of urban scale,the constraints of urban environmental carrying capacity on urban development have attracted more and more people's attention.Municipal solid waste is an important indicator of urban environmental carrying capacity.Starting from the research of urban environmental carrying capacity,using gray relational analysis,this paper states that population is.the main influencing factors of city living garbage generated,and uses the modified GM-Markov model,to predict of city garbage generation and city environmental carrying capacity of Shanghai in 2030.The results show that the amount of municipal solid waste in Shanghai will reach 10.9795million tons,and the probability of occurrence is 20%in 2030.Finally,according to the above analysis,thispaper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to the urban planning in Shanghai,so as to provide scientific guidance for the control and reduction of the total amount of municipal solid waste in Shanghai.