长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放的影响因素分解与预测研究

Decomposition Analysis of NO_x Emission Factors and Prediction Research in Yangtze River Delta Region

文章基于长三角地区各省份的能源平衡表,采用排放因子法,对长三角地区2000—2014年能源消费氮氧化物排放量进行了核算,并应用LMDI法对长三角地区历年氮氧化物排放量和氮氧化物排放强度及其变化的因素进行了时间序列分析。为了定量分析长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放的影响因素,利用STIRPAT模型,分析长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放量与人口、富裕度、技术进步和城镇化水平之间的关系,通过岭回归模拟后发现,人口数量、人均GDP、能源强度、城市化水平每变化1%,长三角地区能源消费氮氧化物排放量将分别发生3.12%、0.0068%、-0.45%、0.49%的变化。在以上研究的基础上,设置8种不同的发展情景,分析了长三角地区未来能源消费氮氧化物排放量的发展趋势。

Based on the energy balance table of the provinces (cities)in the Yangtze River Delta,this paper uses the emission factor method to calculate the nitrogen oxides emissions of the Yangtze River Delta from 2000to 2014,and apply the LMDI method to the Yangtze River Delta Nitrogen oxide emissions and nitrogen oxide emission intensity and its changes in the factors of time series analysis.In order to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of nitrogen consumption in energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta region,the STIRPAT model was used to analyze the energy consumption of nitrogen oxides in the Yangtze River Delta and the population,the wealth, technological progress and the level of urbanization.Through ridge regression simulation,it is found that every 1%change in population,per capita GDP,energy intensity and urbanization level,the emissions of nitrogen oxides from energy consunaption in the Yangtze River Delta will change by 3.12%,0.0068%,0.45%and 0.49%respectively.On the basis ofthe above research,the different development scenarios are set up,and the development trend of future nitrogen consumption of nitrogen in the Yangtze River Delta is analyzed.