基于解释结构方程模型的公共安全政策效果第三方评估制约因素实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Constraints of the Third Party Evaluation for Policy Effect of Public Security Based on ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling) Model

本文以公共安全政策效果第三方评估的制约因素为研究对象,在系统梳理相关文献和理论分析的基础上,借助解释结构方程模型(interpretative structural modeling,ISM模型)分析方法,定量分析不同制约因素之间的内在作用机理。得出如下结论:我国公共安全政策效果第三方评估主要受专业评估机构数量少和专业力量薄弱、评估机构权威性不高、业务保密特殊要求、政策评估的合法性、评估法律法规不完善、评估未受足够重视、评估标准不统一、评估专业人员匮乏以及行政化体制等九种因素共同影响。业务保密特殊要求和政策评估的合法性问题是当前推进公共安全政策效果第三方评估应优先解决的制约因素,而评估标准不统一、评估专业人员匮乏以及行政化体制的制约作用次之,"专业评估机构数量少和专业力量薄弱"以及权威性不高的制约作用最小。

Based on a systematical analysis of the relevant literature and theory,the internal mechanism of different constraints is quanti- tatively analyzed by system analysis method of ISM (Interpretative Structural Modeling)in this paper.The main factors that influence the third party evaluation for the policy effect of public security organizations in our country mainly include :lack of professional assessment institutions,confidentiality requirements,legitimacy problems,insufficient authority,imperfect laws and regulations,insufficient atten- tion,uniformity of evaluation criteria,lack of evaluators,and administrative system.Currently,confidentiality requirements and legiti- macy problems are what should be addressed as the first priority in the third party evaluation.The problems to be addressed as the second priority are uniformity of evaluation criteria,lack of evaluators and administrative system.The last ones on the priority list are constraints of lack of professional assessment institutions and insufficient authority.