供水管网水力模型不确定性解析法及应用

Uncertainty analysis of hydraulic models in water distribution network

供水管网的水力模型被广泛应用于工程设计、管网水力水质分析、管网优化运行等领域。然而,管网模型的管道粗糙系数、节点需水量等运行参数常包含一定的误差,与管网实际运行状况不完全相符。因此,管网模型的输出结果,如节点水压、管道流量等与真实情况之间存在偏差,具有一定的不确定性。传统的管网模型不确定性分析方法计算量较大,难以满足实时模拟的需求。结合一阶二次矩法与管网雅克比矩阵的解析式,提出了管网模型不确定性的解析计算方法,并在实际管网中证实了该方法的有效性。结果表明该解析法可准确、快速地计算水力模型结果的协方差矩阵及置信区间,为决策者提供更为充分、可靠的信息。

Mathematical models of water distribution network (WDN)have been widely applied in engineering designs,hydraulic and water quality analysis,optimal operations,etc.However, the parameters like pipe roughness coefficients and nodal demands of WDN models generally contain errors and disagree with actual conditions.Therefore,the outputs of WDN models like nodal pressures and pipe flows are disagree with actual conditions,i.e.,the outputs contain uncertainties.Traditional solutions of the uncertainties are too computationally demanding to satisfy the real-time simulation requirement.Combining the first-order second-moment method with analytical solutions of Jacobian matrix of WDN models,a new analytical solution method for calculating of uncertainties of WDN models is presented.The method is tested on a real-life network to show its effectiveness.The results show that the analytical method gives a fast and accurate solution of the covariance of model outputs and the confidence interval,which provides more reliable and precise information for decision makers.