中国城镇化四十年:关键事实与未来选择

40 Years of Chinese Urbanization: Key Findings and Future Options

改革开放40年来,中国的城镇化率由不足世界平均水平的一半发展到超越世界平均水平3个百分点以上。文章基于相关数据和国际比较,梳理了改革开放以来城镇化演进的基本历程、关键事实和主要经验。主要结论是,中国已进入城镇人口占多数的"城市社会"时代,这是城镇化发展的新方位。40年的城镇化是人类历史的奇迹,速度很快,但总体与经济发展的追赶过程相吻合,符合亲历第一个"城市社会"的马克思恩格斯揭示的城市化规律。由此引申的政策含义是,推进可持续的城镇化仍然是大趋势,马克思城镇化理论对当今中国仍然具有理论价值和指导意义。未来的城镇化道路要瞄准人民对美好生活的向往,把握城市社会、风险社会、发展中大国三大基点,在转向高质量发展的征程中,城镇化可以稳一点、慢一点,注意降风险、降成本。

During the past 40 years of China’s reform and opening-up, the percentage of population residing in urban areas has increased by over 40 percent, from a level at half of the world average in 1978 to 3-percentage points higher than the world average in 2017. Based on the related data and perspectives such as the Marxism urbanization theories, we review key findings and primary experiences of China’s urbanization process. The 40 years’ urbanization in China is a human historical miracle with a rapid rate, which roughly coincides with the law of urbanization. Future urbanization strategy should aim at fulfilling people’s good life wishes and stand on the three basic points, i.e., urban society, risk society, and developing country. The China’s future urbanization could be at a more stable and slower pace than before during a development period with an orientation of high quality. Attention should be paid to the risks and costs in future urbanization.