气候变化对汾河流域汛期分期影响研究

Research on the Influence of Climate Change on Flood Season Staging of the Fenhe River Basin

合理的汛期分期是水库调度运行的基础,现阶段,全球气候变化的大趋势下,流域的降水量时空分布已经发生了改变,研究气候变化对汛期分期的影响是十分重要的。文中以汾河水库为研究对象,以1957—2014年汾河流域13个气象站降水量资料为基础,采用泰森多边形加权法得到汾河水库流域面雨量资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验得到了汾河流域降水量突变年,以此突变年为分界点,对汾河水库流域的汛期进行分期。研究结果表明:检测到汾河水库流域降水量突变发生在1978与1982年,取两个突变年的中间时刻1980年为降水量突变年,对汾河流域进行汛期分期,结果表明突变年后汛期延长了15 d。

Reasonable flood season staging is the foundation of the reservoir operation.At the present stage,the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation in the basin has changed under the trend of global climate change.It is very important to study the influence of climate change on flood season staging.Based on the precipitation data of the 13 meteorological stations in Fenhe River Basin from 1957 to 2014,the Tyson polygon weighting method was adopted to obtain the surface rainfaU data of the Fenhe Reservoir Basin,and the Mann-Kendall test was used to get the precipitation change point in the Fenhe River Basin,which is a demarcation point for flood season staging of the Fenhe Reservoir Basin.The resuhs show that the precipitation change occurred in 1978 and 1982.The middle time of the two years,1980,was selected as the precipitation change point for flood season staging of the Fenhe Reservoir Basin,The results show that the flood season extended by 15 days after the precipitation change point.