互联网金融对银行金融机构贷款规模的影响研究——以我国P2P网贷为例

Research on the Influence of Internet Finance on the Scale of Financial Institutions in China——Taking China's P2P Online Loan as an Example

进入新世纪,以余额宝类产品、第三方支付、P2P网贷等为主要模式的互联网金融在中国迅速发展。本文以P2P网贷为例,通过构建包括商业银行贷款规模、P2P网贷预期收益率、平台风险水平、P2P网贷成交量、GDP之间的VAR模型,分析P2P网贷对我国金融机构贷款规模的影响。结果显示,P2P网贷预期收益率、平台风险水平在短期会对金融机构贷款规模产生一定的波动影响;从长期来看,互联网金融与传统金融机构之间没有明显的替代关系。

Since the beginning of the new era,Internet finance has developed rapidly in China with the main modes of Yu'E Bao products,third-party payment,P2P lending and so on.Taking P2P lending as an example, this paper analyzes the impact of P2P lending on the loan scale of financial institutions in China by establishing a VAR model of loan scale,P2P lending expected return rate,platform risk level,P2P lending volume and GDP. The results show that the expected return rate of P2P lending and the level of platform risk will have a certain fluctuation effects on the scale of financial institutions'loans in the short term;in the long term,there is no obvious alternative relationship between Internet finance and traditional financial institutions.