公共品视角下长期护理保险的最大支付意愿研究

Study on the Maximum Willingness of Paying for Long Term Care Insurance from the Perspective of Public Goods

"十三五"规划提出建立长期护理保险制度,但现有研究难以精确定价,需要有政策制定意义的基本参数提供参照。通过对北京市养护机构的实地调研,得出北京市半失能、失能护理成本;使用CHARLS数据计算健康状态转移概率矩阵,用Markov模型求出长期护理保险最大支付意愿。最后建议:北京市应尽早实行长期护理保险;对不同状态个体收取不同保费;实行国企人共担保费的筹资机制;实施吸引高技术人才的就业政策;对失能群体提供补助,建立调查数据库。

The 13th Five-year Plan has pointed out that it is necessary to explore and establish a system of long-term care insurance.While the current research on the rate pricing is difficult to achieve accurate pricing, which is not strong in guiding policy and has a small reference value.Therefore,we need a basic parameter that has the significance of policy making to provide a reasonable reference and basis for the pricing.Through the investigation of maintenance organization in Beijing,we obtained the statistics of the reasonable nursing cost of semi disability and disability in Beijing.At the same time,we use China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS)tracking data to calculate the health state transfer probability matrix.Then we use the Markov model to calculate the maximum willingness of payment for long-term care insurance.Finally,we propose that Beijing should put long-term care insurance into practice as soon as possible;different premiums should be charged for individuals of different states;The government should provide some subsidies for the high premiums of the disabled groups,implement employment policies to attract hi-tech talents,and set out to gather the data of the disabled of the elderly in Beijing and establish a tracking survey database.