基于水利水电工程项目群协调风险预测探究

Research on Coordinated Risk Prediction based on Water Conservancy and Hydropower Projects

为降低项目群协调风险可能造成的水电工程损失,文章以辽宁省某水电工程项目为例,利用赋权多级平滑法对项目群的协调风险进行了有效的预测。然后通过对协调风险预测可行性的分析,采用风险值作为能够反映风险损失程度的参数指标,并在此基础上构造了一组时间序列预测样本,对样本数据利用指数平滑法进行计算分析。按照各样本数据计算结果的准确性进行相应的赋权,并得到风险预测最终结果和风险可控程度。结果显示:该水电工程项目群存在较高的协调风险,所采用的赋权多级平滑法能够较好的反映水电工程项目协调风险的实际状况,该方法具有良好的可行性与适用性。

In order to reduce the possible loss of hydropower project caused by coordination risk of project group,this paper takes a hydropower project in Liaoning Province as an example,and makes an effective prediction of coordination risk of project group by using weighted multilevel smoothing method. Then through the analysis of the feasibility of coordinated risk forecasting,the risk value is used as a parameter index which can reflect the degree of risk loss. On this basis,a set of time series forecasting samples are constructed,and the sample data are calculated and analyzed by exponential smoothing method. According to the accuracy of the calculation results of each sample data,the corresponding weights are given,and the final results of risk prediction and the degree of risk controllability are obtained. The results show that the hydropower project group has higher coordination risk,and the weighted multilevel smoothing method can better reflect the actual situation of coordination risk of hydropower project. The method has good feasibility and applicability.