经济波动会影响财政政策选择吗?

Will Economic Fluctuation Affect the Decision of Fiscal Policy?

宏观经济学理论认为,宏观经济政策应该是中性的或者是相机决策的。然而在新兴市场国家中,不少研究发现财政政策出现顺周期调控的特征。基于中国的特征现实,通过构建最优财政政策模型,研究受到外生经济冲击时政府部门的最优财政政策反应,发现财政政策的顺周期性往往受到经济波动的影响。原因在于,经济波动越大,政府的税收收入变化幅度越大。那么在传统的非周期性与逆周期调控下,财政盈余或财政赤字会呈现出更大的波动幅度,政府部门将更难以维持财政收支的稳定,最终财政调控出现顺周期的特征。不同类型的外生冲击导致的财政政策反应不同,其中总产出的外生冲击会导致财政支出与消费税率政策的顺周期性,而以生产率为主的外生冲击主要导致财政支出的顺周期性。

Macroeconomics theory holds that macroeconomic policy should be neutral or correspondingly incentive. However,many researches have found that fiscal policy shows some pro-cyclical management features in the emerging market countries.Based on China's real features,by constructing an optimal model of fiscal policy and studying the optimal response of government to fiscal policy when China economic is shocked by exogenous economic,a conclusion was made that the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy can be always influenced by economic fluctuation.The reason lies in that the fluctuation of government tax revenue could be accordingly bigger if economic fluctuation is bigger.Under the traditional noncyclic and counter-cyclical management,fiscal surplus and fiscal deficit will show a prominent fluctuation,which will make government harder to maintain the stability of state revenues and expenditures and fiscal management will consequently present pro-cyclical feature.Different exogenous shocks cause different responses with various fiscal policies.The output exogenous shocks will result in pro-cyclicality of fiscal expenditures and consumption tax,while the exogenous shocks oriented with productivity mainly cause pro-cyclicality of fiscal expenditure.