基于物质流分析的中国机械行业铁资源代谢过程研究

Metabolic process of mechanical products iron resources based on material flow analysis in China

科学分析金属资源代谢过程和计算金属制品报废量是新时代下推进资源节约和循环利用的关键性问题之一。本文使用了动态物质流与静态物质流相结合的方法、生命周期方法、Weibull分布模型和Minitab软件,计算了1949—2016年中国机械行业铁资源的理论报废量,并对13类机械产品在不同消费结构下的报废量进行动态对比。研究发现:(1) 1949—2016年中国含铁产品理论报废量为21.20亿t,其中机械行业理论报废量为4.10亿t,实际回收量分别为17.60亿t和2.80亿t;(2)机械行业报废回收效率为68.3%,其中农业机械类、石油化工机械类、电工电器机械类和汽车(非交通运输类)等产品的报废量增长显著;(3) 2016年铁资源生产阶段中国共投入铁矿石11亿t,经加工阶段后得到7.31亿t粗钢,进入社会终端消费量为6.73亿t,代谢过程资源损失率达38.8%;(4) 2016年中国铁产品社会存量为83亿t,预计2025年将进入存量铁制品的快速报废期。未来中国钢铁产业的战略重点应侧重生产阶段的技术创新,以减少资源损失和环境影响,通过供给侧改革提高钢铁二次资源循环利用效率来解决一系列资源环境问题。

Scientific analysis of the metabolic process of metal resources and calculation of scrapping of metal products is one of the keys to promote resource conservation and recycle in the new era.In this study,the method of combining dynamic material flow with static material flow, Weibull distribution model,life cycle method,and Minitab software were used to calculate the theoretical scrap of iron resources of mechanical products in China from 1949 to 2016(including 13 mechanical products).The comparative analysis of the amount of scrapped products under different consumption structures was conducted.The study found that:①from 1949 to 2016,the theoretical scrap of iron-containing products was 2.12 billion tons,of which the theoretical scrap of mechanical products was 410 million tons,the actual recycling amount was 1.76 billion tons,and 280 million tons in China respectively;②The scrap recycling efficiency of the machinery industry was 68.3%, among which the scrapping amount of agricultural machinery,petrochemical machinery,electrical machinery,and non-transportation vehicles increased significantly;③in 2016 of iron resources production stage,China invested a total of 1.1 billion tons of iron ore.After the processing stage, 731 million tons of crude steel were into the social end of consumption The amount is 673 million tons,and the metabolic process resource loss rate was 38.8%;④China's iron product social stock was 8.3 billion tons in 2016.It is expected to enter the fast retirement period in 2025.In the future, the strategic focus of China's steel industry should focus on technological innovations in production technology,reduce resource losses and environmental impacts,and address a range of resource and environmental issues through supply-side production reforms that increase the capacity of secondary steel resources for recycling.