基于专家置信度的褐煤最佳掺烧比例研究

Study on Optimal Blending Ratio of Lignite Based on Expert Confidence

为了客观评价褐煤掺烧的最佳比例,通过引入专家置信度理论及层次分析法,对设计燃用烟煤的1 000MW锅炉进行褐煤掺烧试验,从掺烧褐煤引起的机组经济性、安全性和环保性等多维度进行评价,通过逐层分析及专家评分的方法将多维度评价转变为单维度评价。结果表明:按照传统配煤比例的评价方法,机组的褐煤掺烧比例越高越好,而本评价方法得到的最佳掺烧比例为20%,更加符合实际情况。

To find the optimal blending ratio of lignite for 1 000MW bituminous coal-fired units,a series of co-firing tests were carried out,following which,a multi-dimensional assessment was conducted from the aspects of unit economy,unit security and environmental protection based on the expert confidence theory and the depth profile analysis,during the process,the multi-dimensional assessment was transferred into single-dimensional assessment.Results show that the optimal blending ratio of lignite is found to be 20%, different from traditional analysis results that high lignite blending ratio is preferred.