贸易摩擦背景下的中国经济增长走势判断--2018-2019年中国宏观经济再展望

Judgement of China Economic Growth Trent under the Background of Trade Friction:Revision of China's Macro-economic Outlook in 2018 and 2019

"中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)"课题组于2018年10月发布中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的第二十五次预测。预测结果表明,当前中国经济增长的下行压力依然来自于国内投资和消费的减速。短期内,中美贸易摩擦通过贸易渠道对中国GDP增长的负面冲击影响有限,但应高度关注贸易摩擦对以制造业出口为导向的民间投资增速的负面冲击影响。针对当前中国家庭部门负债率急剧增长的现实所进行的宏观经济效应经济模拟结果则表明,家庭部门负债率的上升,对居民消费产生较大的抑制效应,也不利于经济的持续稳定增长。因此,在贸易摩擦有可能继续升级的背景下,有关部门要适当考虑"去杠杆"可能面临的金融风险因素和市场承受力,把握好监管力度,确保信贷资源向非金融企业及机关团体贷款倾斜,加大减税降费力度,进一步扶持中小企业发展,促进民间投资增长。同时,需要警惕居民负债率快速上涨对居民消费支出增长的负面冲击。

The research group from Xiamen University released its 25th forecast based on the China Quarterly Macroeconomic Model(CQMM) at the University of London on October 26, 2018. This forecast covers the main indicators of China’s macro-economy in the second half of 2018 and in 2019, focusing on the trend of the nation’s economic growth against the background of China-US trade friction, and the sharp increase in the debt ratio of China’s household sector. A corresponding macroeconomic effect simulation was carried out. The results show that the downward pressure on China ’ s current economic growth still arises from the slowdown in domestic investment and consumption. In the short term, although China-US trade friction has a limited negative impact on China’s GDP growth through trade channels, closer attention should be paid to the negative impact of trade friction on the growth rate of private investment driven by manufacturing exports. Meanwhile,the increase in the debt ratio of the household sector has a stronger inhibitory effect on household consumption and is not conducive to sustained and steady economic growth. Therefore, the research group suggested that in the context of the possibility that trade frictions may continue to escalate, it is necessary to give due consideration to the financial risk factors and market tolerance that "de-leverage" may face, maintain an appropriate level of regulation, and ensure adequate credit resources for non-financial enterprises and institutions. Tax and fee reductions should also be intensified to further support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and promote the growth of private investment. At the same time, we need to stay alert to the negative impact of the rapid rise in the debt ratio of the household sector on the growth of household consumption.