涉煤生产对区域水资源承载系统的影响仿真

Simulation of Influence of Coal-based Industry on Water Resources Bearing System

富煤地区的煤炭开发利用对当地水资源的可持续发展带来压力。引入系统动力学,综合考虑区域的农业、煤炭开发利用、居民生活以及生态保护的需水,建立水资源承载互动仿真模型;以宁夏回族自治区为例,基于两种规划情景,对当地水资源承载系统的动态变化过程进行仿真;仿真结果说明:以市场为基础的资源配置方式下,区域水资源实现可持续发展,但区域均衡发展受到影响。如按照政府主导的资源规划发展,区域水资源供需缺口将进一步扩大;据此,提出相关规划建议。

The contradictory spatial distribution between China's coal resources and water resources has become the stress to sustainable development of regional ecological environment and social economy.The paper presents interactive simulation model of regional water resources bearing system based on System Dynamics;and then Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is used as an example,the dynamic process of local water bearing system was simulated under different scenarios of planning.The simulation results show that regional sustainable development of water resources would be achieved if the resources are allocated based on the market,while the gap between supply and demand of regional water resources would be further expanded by the industry planning.Accordingly,suggestions are presented for future planning of regional coal development and utilization.