利率扭曲、市场分割与深化利率市场化改革

Interest Rate Distortion,Market Segmentation and Deepening Interest Rate Liberalization Reform

虽然存贷款利率管制已经取消,但在改革过渡期内,我国信贷市场中仍然存在一定程度的利率扭曲与市场分割:同时存在商业银行和类银行机构,商业银行利率较低,主要为传统企业等低风险企业贷款,而非传统企业融资更多依赖于利率较高的类银行机构。本文从利率扭曲与市场分割问题入手,构建包含异质性金融部门和企业部门的动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,研究深化利率市场化改革对经济金融的具体效应。结果显示,深化利率市场化改革将促使利率回归均衡,消除监管套利,维护金融稳定;同时,优化金融资源配置,降低企业部门杠杆率,推动经济高质量发展。但深化利率市场化改革也将对不同类型的金融、企业部门形成差异化影响,在助推产业结构优化升级的同时,驱动商业银行和传统企业加快经营转型。此外,深化利率市场化改革后经济体在面对外部冲击时更加稳健。进一步,对比深化利率市场化改革不同进程下的政策效果发现,若进程过快,可能增加短期经济金融波动风险。因此,深化利率市场化改革应遵循循序渐进的原则。

Although lending and deposit rates controls have been cancelled, but in the transition period, there still exists some degree of interest rate distortion and market segmentation in the credit market. There are two types of credit institutions-commercial banks and the similar bank institutions. Commercial banks’ interest rate is low and they mainly supply loans for traditional enterprises, while most non-traditional enterprises’ financing depends on the similar bank institutions with high interest rate. From the view of interest rate distortion and market segmentation, this paper constructs a DSGE model of heterogeneous financial sectors and enterprise sectors, and studies the effects of deepening interest rate liberalization reform. It is illustrated that deepen the reform will cause interest rates to return to equilibrium, eliminate regulatory arbitrage and thus maintain financial stability. At the same time, it will also optimize the allocation of financial resources, reduce the leverage of the enterprise and promote high quality development of economy. However, deepen the reform will have different influence on different types of the financial and enterprise sectors, which will upgrade the industrial structure and drive commercial Banks and traditional enterprises to speed up business transformation. Moreover, after the reform, the economy is more robust in face of external shocks. By comparing the policy effects of different reform processes, it is found that if the reform process is too fast, the risk of economic and financial fluctuations may be increased in the short term. Therefore, the reform should follow a gradual and orderly manner.