盲数和GM(1,1)模型在性能退化产品可靠性分析中的应用

Application of Blind Number and GM(1,1) Model in the Reliability Analysis of Performance Degradation Product

针对现有方法常忽略性能退化数据和失效阈值存在的随机不确定性,将盲数和GM(1,1)模型等灰色系统理论方法运用到性能退化产品可靠性分析中。首先定义退化数据和失效阈值的盲数,采用灰数排序方法优化可信度,由盲数运算求得测量时刻点的可靠度。然后采用GM(1,1)建模方法进行三参数威布尔分布参数估计,获取可靠度函数。最后,将所提方法应用于Ga As激光器退化数据。结果表明本文方法合理有效,拟合精度高,具有工程应用价值。

To solve the problem that uncertainties exsiting in the performance degradation data and failure threshold are always ignored in current methods, a new method of reliability analysis of performance degradation products based on blind number and GM( 1, 1) model is proposed. Firstly, the blind number of degradation data and failure threshold is defined. The method of gray number ranking is used to optimize the confidence level of the blind number. The degree of reliability at the time of the measurement is calculated through blind number operation. Then, the parameter estimation of three-parameter Weibull distribution is carried out by using the GM( 1, 1) modeling method, and the function of reliability degree is obtained. Finally, a case study on the degradation data of GaAs laser is provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results illustrate the rationality, validity and high fitting precision of the proposed method, which can be used in engineering applications.