从科学和政策视角看碳预算对全球气候治理的作用

The scientific and political views of carbon budget for global climate governance

IPCC第五次评估报告进一步阐述和明确了全球平均地表温升与累积CO_2排放之间的近似线性关系。尽管在科学上仍存在一定的不确定性,国际社会对2℃温升目标及所对应的全球累积碳排放空间(即全球碳预算目标)已达成一定的科学认知和政治共识。但如何将碳预算从目标要求转变为各国决策和实际行动,仍是政策制定者们所面临的一个重要问题。在此背景下,提出建立一个有效的碳预算综合管理框架,努力避免人为温室气体排放导致气候系统危害,并利用其科学和政策的双重内涵,来推动谈判进程和加大行动力度,在新型气候治理模式下推动全球减排目标的实现。

IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report has further elaborated and clarified that the global mean temperature increase is nearly linearly proportional to the total cumulative carbon (CO2)emissions.Despite the scientific uncertainties,the international community has reached certain scientific and political consensus on limiting the global mean temperature increase to below 2℃ relative to the pre-industrial level and the global cumulative carbon emissions (the carbon budget)compatible with this target.But how to incorporate the goal of carbon budget into policy decisions and practical actions is still a significant issue facing the policy makers.Therefore,the discussion to establish an effective integrated carbon budget management framework aimed at avoiding human-induced greenhouse gas emissions that danger the climate system,would be a positive approach in the new model of climate governance to realize the global emission reduction target,and with its scientific and political concepts to enable the policy dialogues and enhance actions.