中国保障房配建模式的政策逻辑研究

Research on the Policy Logic of the Inclusionary Mode for Chinese Affordable Housing Supply

从2007年起,我国部分城市开始探索保障房建设的配建模式,全国各城市和地区配建的保障房包括保障性租赁住房、限价房、经济适用房、自住型商品房等各种形式。政策运行十年来,配建模式始终面临开发商缺乏动力的挑战。运用决策树模型考察配建保障房参与主体即中央政府、地方政府、房地产开发商及购房者的行为选择,发现如下结论:(1)地方政府最终会整体考虑"财务成本"与"政治成本",将保障房建设量最小化;(2)地方政府在对中低收入家庭可支付住房供给的责任与存在的财政压力进行综合权衡后,最终会在配建模式的要素选择上将成本转嫁给开发商;(3)选择竞标配建项目的房地产开发商,会通过提高配建保障房的名义成本或抬高商品房销售价格实现套利;(4)配建保障房最终会形成对商品住房市场的挤出效应,既会减少中低收入家庭对配建保障房的可得性,也会刺激普通商品住房价格的上涨。可以说,保障房配建的政策逻辑,反映出政府在解决中低收入家庭住房问题时,对可支付住房内在特性的追求与新自由主义内在动力之间的冲突与悖论,各行为主体从各自"理性"出发,是造成政策失灵的重要原因。

Since 2007,some cities in China have begun to explore the inclusionary mode for affordable housing supply. The affordable housing provided by cities and regions across the country includes various forms such as affordable rental housing,price-limited housing,economic comfortable housing,and self-occupied commercial housing. In the past ten years,the inclusionary mode has always faced the challenge from real estate developers who lack of motivation. Using the decision tree model to examine the behavioral choices of the participating entities including the central government,local governments,real estate developers and home-buyers,the following conclusions were found:( 1) Local governments will consider ‘financial costs’ and ‘political costs’ as a whole to minimize the amount of affordable housing supply.( 2)After comprehensively weighs the responsibility for the affordable housing supply and the existing financial pressures,the local government will eventually pass the cost on to the real estate developers.( 3) The real estate developer who chooses the bidding project will realize the arbitrage by increasing the nominal cost of the affordable housing or raising the selling price of the commercial housing.( 4) The inclusionary mode for affordable housing supply will eventually form a crowding out effect on the commodity housing market,which will reduce the possibility for low-and middle-income families to get the affordable housing,and will also stimulate the rise of commodity housing prices. It can be said that the policy logic of the inclusionary mode for affordable housing supply reflects the conflict and paradox between the pursuit of the intrinsic characteristics of affordable housing and the internal motivation of neoliberalism when the government solves the housing problem of low-and middle-income families. The participants in the inclusionary mode choose behaviors from their respective ‘rationality’are an important cause of policy failure.