福利国家分配系统内部变迁的路径打破:基于经验和指标检验

The Path Breaking to the Internal Changes of the Welfare State Distribution Regime——Based on the Empirical and Indicator Examination

传统研究福利国家分配系统变迁的方法论主要采用路径依赖。然而,无论从研究属性还是统计方法上看,路径依赖方法论都具有一定的局限性。事实上,路径打破的分析方法对研究福利国家生产系统的变迁具有关键作用。研究结果表明,福利改革过程表现出"双重化"特征,市场化或私有化只发生于一部分领域,而与此伴生着其他领域的逆市场化现象,并且政府的角色也在分配系统领域中不断加强,福利国家的二次分配功能由此获得提升。此外,通过设定政府的税收汲取能力、政府转移支付和消费的能力两个变量,我们发现福利国家分配能力并不像路径依赖方法所得出的结论那样呈现单调变化,而是出现了波状式变化。这说明福利国家分配系统的变迁是可能的。当然,路径打破方法论的发现和运用,并不意味着对路径依赖方法论的全面否定;恰恰相反,两者相辅相成,结合在一起在不同条件下使用,对于有效理解福利国家危机及其破解,具有重要的理论价值。

This article explores the internal changes of the distribution regime in the welfare state reforms in the path breaking approach.It finds that the dualisation exhibits during the welfare state reforms,and the marketization or the privatisation simply occurs in some areas,whilst in some other areas an anti-market phenomenon is concurrently happening,and the government role is also enhancing in the distribution regime,which therefore promotes the function of redistribution of the welfare state.Besides,by setting two variables of the government tax abstraction as well as the government fiscal transfer payment consumption,the enhancement of the redistributive function and the expansion of the government role of welfare states have been verified.Lastly,the article compares the path breaking approach with the path dependence approach in the application of the welfare state reform studies.