基于MIKE SHE模型的华北平原水资源利用情景分析

Scenario analysis on water resources utilization of the North China Plain based on MIKE SHE model

气候变化和人类活动是影响流域水文循环和水资源可持续利用的两大驱动因素,在校准的MIKE SHE模型基础上考虑气候变化和人类活动的影响,设定8个情景对华北平原2009-2028年的水文循环及水资源利用进行预测。结果表明:考虑南水北调工程的情景在预测期末的地下水水位有较大程度(0. 06~1. 26 m)的恢复,预测期内华北平原水量总流入小于总流出会导致含水层储量的消耗和地下水的不可持续利用,但在适当情景下可以较大程度缓解这种不可持续性。气候变化对华北平原含水层储量有较大的影响:降水量减少5%,地下水储量将减少0. 27 m;降水量增加5%,地下水储量将增加0. 3 m。南水北调工程和农业节水措施的实施对华北平原地下水水位的恢复、缺水程度的缓解作用显著。

Climate change and human activities are two major driving forces that affect the watershed hydrological cycle and water resources sustainable utilization,and these two factors are considered in the calibrated MIKE SHE model of the North China Plain (NCP)to predict the hydrological cycle and water resources utilization during 2009-2028 based on eight designed scenarios.The results showed that:the groundwater levels at the end of predictive period under scenarios considering the South -to -North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP)have greatly recovered with a groundwater storage recovery of 0.06- 1.26m;the fact that the total inflow was less than the total outflow during 2009-2028will result in the aquifer storage depletion and groundwater unsustainable development,which can be alleviated under certain scenarios;climate change has a major impact on the aquifer storage:5% reduction in precipitation will lead to 0.27m reduction in aquifer storage,whereas 5%increase in precipitation will lead to 0.3m increase in storage ;the implementations of SNWDP and agricultural water conservation have more significant effects on groundwater head recovery and water shortage degree mitigation.