灾后动态环境下基于MPC的应急运输实时调度

Real-time relief transportation planning based on MPC in post-disaster dynamic environment

应急资源运输是灾后应急响应中的一类重要行动.针对强地震后灾区物资供应和伤员转运需求,建立一个多周期应急运输调度模型,基于模型预测控制(MPC)的多周期滚动优化框架,提出相应的运输计划动态调整策略,以适应供应与需求等决策参数的预计不准确性和动态演变性.数值实验验证了所建运输调度模型及所提出动态调整框架的有效性.与传统基于多周期应急运输调度方法相比,所提出方法能够有效减少运输调度的不满足量,并能显著消除预测结果不准确性对不满足量的影响.

Emergency resource transportation is a kind of important activity in post-disaster emergency response campaign. A multi-period emergency transportation model is proposed, in which both the delivery of relief commodities and the evacuation of critical population are considered. Then, a rolling-horizon framework based on the model predictive control(MPC) method is innovatively introduced. After that, an adjustment policy is proposed to adapt to the evolution of supply and demand and to satisfy the real-time adjustment requirement caused by the inaccuracy of prediction on supply and demand. The numerical experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed multi-period relief transportation model and the MPC based rolling-horizon framework. Additionally, compared with the traditional multi-period relief transportation planning method, the proposed method can effectively decrease the amount of total weighted unmet demand, and obviously eliminate the influence on the optimization objective caused by the inaccuracy of predictions.