数据驱动的技术预测:现状、技术与趋势

Data-driven Technology Forecasting: Status,Technology and Trends

技术预测不仅可以辅助科技战略决策者作出正确抉择,还能够帮助研究人员把握研究方向。随着大数据技术的快速发展,技术预测已从传统的单一基于专家意见的预测方法转化为数据驱动的技术预测方法。文章介绍了国内外数据驱动的技术预测研究现状,总结了目前主要支撑技术预测的关键技术,在此基础上提出了4个技术预测的未来发展趋势。

Technology forecasting can not only help science and technology strategy decision makers make the right choices, but also support researchers grasp research direction.With the rapid development of big data technology,technology forecasting has transformed from the traditional single expert-based forecasting method into a data-driven method.This paper first introduces the research status of data-driven technology forecasting at home and abroad.Then,it summarizes the key technologies used for technology forecasting.Finally,the paper proposes four development trends for the future technology forecasting.