我国高速公路大风灾害风险评估与区划研究

Risk Assessment and Zoning of Gale Disasters on Expressway in China

基于全国2373个国家级地面气象观测站2005年~2014年的逐小时风速观测资料和社会性数据信息,采用层次分析法构建高速公路大风灾害风险评估指标体系和权重集,利用自然灾害风险指数法计算综合风险指数,并结合GIS空间分析技术开展我国高速公路大风灾害风险区划研究。结果显示,我国高速公路大风灾害风险分布总体呈现新疆东北部和东部沿海部分地区高、中西部大部地区低的趋势;大风灾害高风险与较高风险区主要分布在东北地区西南部、内蒙古中部、华北中部、山东中东部、长三角、浙闽沿海、珠三角、雷州半岛以及新疆三十里风区和百里风区等地的局部高速公路路段;全国其他地区主要高速公路沿线的大风灾害风险则相对较低。

Based on the hourly wind speed observation data from 2373 national meteorological stations during 2005 to 2014,and the social data of China,the way of Analytic Hierarchy process(AHP)is adopted to establish the index system and corresponding weight of gale disasters risk assessment on expressway.The natural disaster risk index method and GIS spatial analysis function are used to calculate and divide the comprehensive risk index,the risk zoning is studied and analyzed.The results show that the expressway in eastern coastal and northwestern Xinjiang are in high risk of gale disaster,while those in midwest China are in low risk.The highest and second highest risk sections are mainly distributed in the southwest of northeast China,central of Inner Mongolia and north China,central and eastern Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta,the coastal areas of Zhejiang and Fujian provinces,Pearl River Delta,Leizhou Peninsula,Sanshili and Baili Wind area of Xinjiang.Risk of gale disaster along the major expressways is relatively low in other regions.