全球老龄化:事实、影响与政策因应

Global Ageing: Facts, Impacts and Policy Responses

在生育率走低和寿命延长的双重作用下,全球人口结构正向蘑菇状演变,澄清这一趋势的经济社会含义是预测人口老龄化未来走势及其影响的逻辑起点。从经济角度看,人口老龄化的核心含义在于老年抚养比例的失衡,其后果既包括"人口红利"消失、生产效率低迷、创新潜能下降等增长阻滞,也涉及医疗护理费用剧增、养老金支出加大等成本压力;从社会面向看,人口老龄化意味着老年群体脆弱性加剧、家庭互惠模式变迁、城乡及区域差距拉大、代际冲突升温等一系列治理难题。在应对老龄化方面,发达国家主要以人口振兴、成本控制、效率提升、风险共担为政策导向,中国作为"未富先老"的典型,应积极借鉴国际经验,探索具有中国特色的应对老龄化制度体系。

Due to the dual effects of lower fertility rate and longer life expectancy,the global population structure is evolving into a mushroom shape.Clarifying the economic and social implications of this trend is the logical starting point for predicting the progress of population aging and its impact.From the economic point of view,the core implication of population aging is the imbalance of the old-age dependency ratio.The consequences include the disappearance of "demographic dividend",low productivity,declining innovation potential and surging health expenditure and pensions.For society,population aging brings about a range of governance problems such as the increased vulnerability of the elderly population,changes to the model of reciprocity in family life,the widening urban-rural gaps and the rise of intergenerational conflicts.In dealing with aging,developed countries mainly rely on population revitalization,cost control,efficiency improvement and risk sharing.As a typical country that is "getting old before getting rich",China should actively learn from international experience and explore a system with Chinese characteristics to deal with aging.