中俄关系的历史演变与未来趋势

Historical Evolution and Future Trends of Sino-Russian Relations

中俄关系是国际关系中重要的双边关系之一,两国关系不仅对自身的发展影响巨大,而且对国际格局,尤其对塑造和形成东亚地区的国际格局具有决定性影响。中俄两国关系错综复杂,有过蜜月期,也经历过全面破裂,恶化至互为敌人和全面对抗的状态,在目前新的国际关系形势下又开始了新一轮的磨合与协调。在美国等西方国家对中俄构成的政治安全压力和威胁下,中俄两国的全面战略协作伙伴关系还会继续维持,但两国更为深入的合作也会受限,对未来中俄关系的一个基本判断,就是中俄两国都一再公开主张的"结伴而不结盟"。

The Sino-Russian relations are one of the most important bilateral relations in the international community. Their relationship not only significantly affects their own development,but also has a vital influence on the international pattern, especially on shaping the regional pattern of East Asia.The Sino-Russian relations are complicated,which have intermittently experienced honeymoon periods,got broken completely,and deteriorated into a state of hostility and overall confrontation.In the current situation of new international reIations,a new round of integration and coordination has begun.Under the political security pressures and threats posed by the United States and other Western countries to China and Russia,their comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership will continue,but their deeper cooperation will also be limited.A basic judgment of their relationship is that they will cooperate but not form an alliance,as they have repeatedly stated.