我国城镇职工基本养老保险缴费率的下调空间及其财政效应研究

The Decreasing Space of China's Basic Pension Insurance for Urban Employees and the Effect on Public Expenditures

文章以城镇职工基本养老保险为例,在确保基金收支平衡和养老金待遇不变的基础上,分析社会保险缴费率在短期(2018-2025年)和中期(2018-2050年)内是否具备降低空间,并进一步评估降费对财政负担的影响,研究发现:(1)如果没有任何政策干预,基金将于2028年出现累计赤字,缴费率在短期内具备降低空间,但在中期内需每2年提高0.56%或每5年提高1.29%。(2)实施"全面二孩"政策后,在短期内也可降费,但如果着眼于中期,缴费率仍需每2年提高0.36%-0.51%,或每5年提高0.83%-1.19%。(3)如果进一步引入延迟退休、养老金入市等政策,则缴费率在中期内可每2年降低0.3%-0.43%,或每5年降低0.71%-0.99%。(4)如果政府在短期内降费,财政在2026-2050年需对基金累计投入13.31-145.23万亿元;当政府着眼于中期,财政无需对基金给予投入。(5)在具备降费空间的前提下,如果每5年降低缴费率,财政对基金的累计投入比每2年降费的情况低2.21%-36.96%。上述结论均通过敏感性测试。可见,为缓解企业缴费负担,政府应尽快完善鼓励生育、延迟退休、养老金入市等政策。

The year of 2016and before,Chinese enterprises needed to pay social insurance premiums at least 30% of the total wages of their employees.Based on the above background,can the contribution rate of China's social insurance system for urban employees be further reduced?If so,what level can the contribution rate be reduced to?Considering that the basic pension insurance for urban employees occupies a pivotal position in the social insurance system for urban employees,this paper takes the basic pension insurance for urban employees as an example,and analyzes whether the contribution rate can be further decreased in the shortterm (2018-2025) and the mediumterm (2018-2050) by using actuarial models,in order to provide a more scientific quantitative basis for the government to introduce policies to reduce the contribution burden for enterprises.In the paper,there are two basic hypotheses:one is that the basic pension fund for urban employees should be balanced;the other is that the replacement rate of pension should be unchanged. Based on the actuarial models and the hypothesis of related parameters,the paper finishes a series of simulations,and the results are shown as follows:(1)If there is no policy intervention,the cumulative deficit of basic pension fund for urban employees will appear in 2028,and the contribution rate can be decreased in the short term not in the medium term.(2)When implementing universal two-child policy,although the contribution rate can be reduced in the short term,the contribution rate should be increased by 0.36% to 0.51% every 2 years,or increased by 0.83% to 1.19% every 5 years.(3)If further introducing the policy of delaying retirement age and investing the basic pension fund into the stock market,the contribution rate can be decreased by 0.3% to 0.43% every 2 years,or decreased by 0.71% to 0.99% every 5 years in the mediumterm.(4)If the government wants to reduce the contribution burden of employers in the shortterm,it needs to invest a total of 13.31 to 145.23 trillion Yuan into the pension fund;when the government focuses on the mediumterm,it should not invest any money into the pension fund.(5)If reducing the contribution rate every 5 years,compared with the situation of reducing the contribution rate every 2 years,the fiscal investment can be decreased by 2.21% to 36.96%.The above results have passed the sensitivity test. Therefore,in order to further ease the contribution burden of employers,the government can encourage fertility,delay retirement age,invest pension fund into the stock market and so on as soon as possible.In addi- tion,taking into account of the future fiscal burden,the government should also focus on the medium and long term when reducing the contribution rate,and minimize the contribution rate reduction frequency.