财政科教支出、技术进步与区域经济协调发展——基于引致技术进步动态多区域CGE模型

Fiscal Spending on Science and Education, Technical Progress and Regional Economic Coordinated Development:Based on a Dynamic Multi-regional CGE Model Incorporating Induced Technical Change

文章基于引致技术进步动态多区域CGE模型,实证模拟了我国财政科教支出规模和比例变化对八大地区技术进步和经济协调发展的影响。模拟结果显示:增加东北、中部和西部地区的财政研发支出规模可以提高这些地区的物质资本效率和经济增长,但不利于提高其人力资本效率和部分非受援区域经济增长;增加这些地区的财政教育支出规模对八大地区的技术水平和经济增长的影响不显著;在控制东北或中部地区财政支出规模的情况下,提高财政研发支出比例可以持续地促进八大地区的技术进步和经济增长,而且同时提高两地区财政研发支出比例的政策效果更好。财政科教支出的政策效果会随时间变化,需要适时调整财政科教资金支出的规模、比例和地区选择,才能使中国走上技术进步和区域经济协调发展的双赢道路。

This paper firstly builds a dynamic multi-regional CGE model incorporating induced technical change,and then we use this model to simulate the influence of the change in the scale and the proportion of fiscal expenditure on technological progress and coordinated economic development in eight regions. The simulation results show that increasing fiscal R&D expenditure in the northeast,the central or the western region can promote the improvement of physical capital efficiency and economic growth in all these three regions,but it is harmful to the improvement of human capital efficiency in the three aided regions and the economic growth of the other unaided regions. The increase of education expenditure has no significant effect on all these eight regions. If we control the fiscal expenditure scale in the northeast or the central region,and increase the proportion of fiscal R&D expenditure at the same time,we can promote the technological progress and economic growth of the two regions. If we want to get a greater degree of technological progress and economic growth in the northeast or the central region,we can increase the proportion of fiscal R&D spending in both the two regions at the same time. At last,fiscal spending on science and education will change over time,so it is necessary to adjust the choice of number and proportion of fiscal science and education spending in different regions at different times,and only in this way can make China on the win-win road of technological progress and regional economic coordinated development.