基于量化分析的民航国内运价机制精准改革研究——兼析美国民航运价改革经验教训

Research on Accurate Reform of Civil Aviation Domestic Freight Rate Mechanism Based on Quantitative Analysis——Analysis of the lessons learned from the US civil shipping price reform

本文首先对民航运价机制改革的历史和现状进行梳理,提出研究目标;其次,对国内外相关文献进行梳理总结,分析了美欧对民航运价机制改革“一放了之”的经验教训;然后,建立以运价水平和旅客运输中转量为解释变量的目标函数,按照经营航线的航空公司数量将国内航线分为5家(含)以上、4家、3家、2家(含)以下等四类,并将各类航线上运价水平和旅客运输周转量的量化关系模型带入目标函数,解得各类航线运价水平最佳值。最后,对运价水平最佳值超过实际值较大的航线,建议稳步提高公布价水平,研究结果支持民航局出台的相关政策,政策执行效果达到了预期。

This paper firstly sorts out the history and current situation of the reform of the civil shipping price mechanism, and puts forward the research objectives. Secondly, it summarizes the relevant literatures at home and abroad, and analyzes the reform of the US-European shipping price mechanism. Lessons learned; then, establish an objective function with the freight rate and passenger transport turnover as explanatory variables, and divide the domestic routes into 5 or more, 4, 3, and 2 according to the number of airlines operating the route( Including the following four categories, and the quantitative relationship model of the freight rate and passenger transportation turnover on various routes is brought into the objective function, and the optimal value of the freight rate of each route is solved. Finally, for routes with the best value of freight rate exceeding the actual value, it is recommended to steadily increase the published price level. The research results support the relevant policies issued by the Civil Aviation Administration, and the effect of policy implementation has reached expectations.