景区土地续租中农民的有限理性决策行为——基于中山市新伦村的个案调查

Farmers' Bounded Rational Decision-making Behavior in Land Renewal of a Scenic Area: Case Study of Xinlun Village in Zhongshan City

农村地区土地流转是当前研究的热点问题,但农民在土地流转中究竟是如何进行决策行为的研究尚未获得重视。通过对中山市新伦村的田野考察,发现村民在景区土地续约中的决策行为经历了识别问题、确定目标、信息获取、方案设计到方案选择的过程,但受到外部政策和制度、微观环境中的社会关系、集体行为方式以及个体认知能力的约束,在信息收集中表现出可得性偏向下的认知偏差,在方案设计中依赖启发式推理下的直觉判断,在方案选择中存在面临损失下的风险偏好。他们的有限理性决策行为争取到了一定的权力,但在一定程度导致了岭南水乡和丰本农业科技园的消亡,也有可能在未来将地区中小乡村旅游景区驱逐出市场,对地区未来的乡村旅游发展产生重要影响。

Land transfer in rural areas is a much-debated topic in current research;however,insufficient studies have been devoted to decision-making by farmers with respect to such transfer.Following field investigations in Xinlun Village,Zhongshan City,Guangdong Province,I determined that the decision- making behavior of farmers in land renewal of scenic areas had undergone the processes of identifying problems,determining objectives,obtaining information,designing land renewal schemes,and selecting such schemes.I found that the farmers'decision-making behavior was influenced by external environmental factors (e.g.,land policy and economic environment)as well as by personal factors (e.g., knowledge structure,social experience,values,and emotions).In addition,the decision-making behavior was affected by social relations in the micro-environment (mainly by relationships among grassroots govemments,farmers,and scenic area operators)as well as by the farmers'collective behavior patterns (e.g.,conformity and overconfidence).The farmers showed a cognitive bias in information collection,relied on intuitive judgment under heuristic reasoning in scheme design,and displayed a risk preference for loss in scheme selection.I determined that the pursuit of satisfactory behavior and related mechanisms were simple and effective.That pursuit was consistent with the farmers'limited access to knowledge;it was also consistent with the complex structure of their living environment.The farmers implemented a land renewal scheme that satisfied their own needs;however, they also made use of land lease schemes of different towns,industries,and locations in surrounding areas.Driven by profit maximization,the farmers often indiscriminately applied high-rent schemes, forcing unacceptable rents on tenants.The farmers gained certain power through their bounded rational decision-making behavior,but that led to the closure of Lingnan Water Township and Fengben Agricultural Science and Technology Park.The bounded rationality of this decision-making behavior will have a great impact on the stability of the relationship between rural tourism and land use.In the future,this may force small and medium-sized rural tourist attractions out of the market:that will have a major impact on the development of rural tourism in the region.Through their collective decision making,the farmers made the government eventually follow their wishes,and they expelled enterprises that were in decline:that is evidence of the farmers'autonomy.Nonetheless,a large discrepancy remains between the power of the farmers'autonomous organizations and the organizational functions expected by the farmers.The farmers'passive position in their struggle for rights and interests remains unchanged:it is difficult for them to actively participate in the decision-making process with respect to the future development of their land.I suggest that the grassroots government should guide farmers in focusing on information other than land prices and help them identify key points with respect to market demand.At the same time,in addition to being land planners and negotiators in the rural land leasing, the grassroots government should play the roles of supervisors and coordinators:that would protect the short-term and long-term benefits for farmers and scenic area operators;it would also actively promote the relationships among all actors.That would lead to a reduction in the social contradictions that resuit from land transfer in future rural tourism development.