签证便利度对出境旅游的影响——基于面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of Visa Facilitation on Outbound Tourism:An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data

签证便利度对出境旅游具有至关重要的影响。文章借助亨氏签证指数(Henley & Partners Visa Restrictions Index)衡量签证便利度,采用动态面板模型,分析全球57个国家2007—2014年签证便利度对出境旅游的影响。结果表明,免签目的地国家/地区的数量对出境旅游率(人均出境过夜旅游人次数)具有正向影响,每增加一个免签目的地数量,出境旅游率的增长幅度在0.10%～0.26%之间。

Visa facilitation has a crucial impact on outbound travel.The Henley & Partners Visa Restrictions Index was used to measure visa accessibility while a dynamic panel model was used to analyze the impact of visa facilitation on outbound travel.The panel data covers 57 countries with a time period of 2007-2014.The study results show that the number of visa-free destinations has a positive impact on the outbound travel rate (i.e.,the number of overnight departures/total population). The overall outbound travel rate increases by 0.10%-0.26%for one additional visa-free destination.In contrast to previous research,this study contributes the following aspects:a)The impact of visa facilitation on outbound tourism is analyzed from the perspective of the tourism source market rather than that of the tourism destination,b)The Henley & Partners Visa Restrictions Index was applied as the measurement of one country or region's departure visa facilitation.The empirical result that visa facilitation has a positive effect on outbound travel to some extent also implies that it is applicable to adopt the Henley & Partners Visa Restrictions Index in measuring visa facilitation,c)The price-level index was adopted as an operation variable for the relative tourism price between the destination and source markets.This helps to construct the outbound tourism demand model from the perspective of the source market with the lack of destination price information,d)The generalized method of moments (GMM)was used to estimate the model.Therefore,the estimation result is more scientific and effective because the endogenous problem caused by the reverse causal relationship between visa facilitation and outbound travel has been resolved.The research results have some implications for tourism policy-makers and destination marketing.The empirical results show that a convenient exit-visa system can promote outbound tourism flows from source markets.In view of this finding,it is probably more effective to attract visitors by simplifying their entry-visa procedures under the framework of a national or.regional security policy for tourist destinations.The visa system has long been one of the main factors restricting the development of inbound tourism in China.Appropriate visa relaxation or facilitation measures will provide impetus for the stable recovery of China's inbound tourism market. At present,some Chinese cities have implemented a 72-to 144-hour visa-free transit policy.How to further develop its role in inbound tourism is one of the focuses of China's destination marketing and policy-making departments concerning inbound tourism promotion.As for the tourism source markets, exit-visa policies can also play a major role in the management of outbound tourism flows.For example,China's Approved Destination Status (ADS)system,which began at the end of the last century was essentially a breakthrough for the exit-visa policy.The implementation of the ADS system has promoted the development of outbound tourism in China.Moreover,visa policies were recently still applied to regulate outbound tourism flows.These policies include the "individual travel"policy from China's Mainland to Hong Kong and Macao,which was issued in 2003and from China's Mainland to Taiwan in 2008,and the "one-visa multientry,"which was adjusted to a "one week,one entry"policy for Shenzhen residents to Hong Kong in 2015,among others.