基于SP法的旅游者景点选择需求偏好与规划应对

The Preference Analysis for Tourist Choice of Scenic Spot: A Stated Preference Approach

旅游者景点选择的需求偏好是旅游行为研究的一个重要内容。现有文献对旅游者需求偏好关注不足且缺少自下而上的量化方法和模型支撑。文章采用陈述性偏好法(SP)研究鼓浪屿旅游者对旅游景点的需求偏好,并为规划应对提供决策建议。主要结论为:鼓浪屿旅游者最喜欢的景点类型是音乐文化,其次是自然风光、万国建筑和名人轶事,旅游者为相应类型景点的"愿意支付价格"分别为34元、30元、25元和15元;旅游者为减小每一级拥挤程度的"愿意支付价格"为38元;鼓浪屿上大多数的景点门票价格高于旅游者的期望;由于旅游设施不足以及过度商业化,原本被寄予厚望的景点并没有引起旅游者的太多关注,旅游者在进入景区前对旅游体验的预期与实际情况存在明显落差。

Tourist choice behavior of scenic spot is the key element in tourist travel decision-making process and its analysis inevitably needs empirical data of tourists.Stated preference (SP)methods acquire data by "just asking"consumers about choices,perceptions,tastes,attitudes,satisfaction, loyalty,etc.The methods can offer much broader data on structure of consumer preferences than those acquired using revealed preference (RP)ones and therefore have been widely employed in marketing and policy analysis.However,empirical studies which apply the SP technique to analyze,describe,or forecast tourist choice behavior of scenic spot in the context of Asia regions remain sorely insufficient. In the light of this,we conducted an SP questionnaire survey in September 2015 at Dongdu International Terminal,of which the respondents are set as the tourists who have ever finished the travel on Gulangyu,a popular and well-known tourist destination which has recently been included in the World Heritage List.Notably,this segment of tourists is thought to have a much better awareness and understanding of characteristics and circumstances of the destination.In this study,we interviewed 192 tourists regarding their travel choices in a few hypothetical games that were designed to mimic market experiences.Based on the SP data collected (N=1,421),a discrete choice model is adopted to identify factors that affect the tourist choice of scenic spot.Finally,based on the modeling results,a few suggestions on tourism development are provided,such as enhancing the interaction between tourists and scenic spots and increasing the channels of information provision.The main findings of this paper include:1)tourist choice of scenic spot is affected by many factors,including entrance fee,congestion level,and attraction category;2)the most popular attraction category of Gulangyu is musical culture, followed by natural scenery,architecture,and historical anecdotes;3)the willing-to-pay values for musical culture,natural scenery,architecture,and historical anecdote scenic spots are 34,30,25and 15 Yuan in RMB,respectively;4)the willing-to-pay value for one-unit reduction in congestion is 38Yuan; and 5)entrance prices of most scenic spots are higher than tourists'expectations,and thus a striking difference between tourists'expectation and the status quo can be identified.A few research limitations are discussed finally,such as the exclusion of socio-economic characteristics (e.g.,age and gender), sample selection bias,and limited consideration of other factors affecting optimization strategies of attraction.We believe that the proposed modeling,findings,and discussions provide the basis for policy instruments,and they can act as a valuable reference to rationalized design and management of tourist destinations.