摘要
介绍原有创新扩散模型及其局限性,根据移动互联网产品特点进行改进,构建适用于迭代产品扩散的改进模型。利用移动互联网产品实际数据对产品迭代扩散改进模型进行实证分析,采用仿真软件中的模拟退火算法进行参数估计和模型拟合,揭示移动互联网产品的迭代扩散特点。对比原有模型和改进模型的拟合效果和预测效果,结果说明产品迭代扩散改进模型对移动互联网产品的拟合效果和预测效果更好。
This paper introduces the original innovation diffusion model and its limitation,and improves it according to the characteristics of mobile internet products,and constructs an improved model suitable for iterative product diffusion.Based on the actual data of mobile internet products,the improved product iterative diffusion model is empirically analyzed,the simulated annealing algorithm in simulation software is used for parameter estimation and model fitting to reveal the characteristics of iterative diffusion of mobile internet products.Compared with the original model and the improved model,the results show that the improved product iterative diffusion model has better fitting effect and prediction effect on mobile Internet products.
作者
傅荣
王佩珊
Fu Rong;Wang Peishan(Hunan University,Changsha 410082,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第23期94-100,共7页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
湖南省自然科学基金项目"面向互联网群体协作的知识网络演化研究"(12JJ3087)
关键词
移动互联网产品
创新扩散模型
产品迭代扩散
mobile applications
innovation diffusion model
product iteration diffusion
