国内外网络舆情演化、预警和应对理论研究综述

A Summary of Theoretical Research on Internet Public Opinion Evolution, Early Warning and Coping at Home and Abroad

通过国内外关于网络舆情演化规律、预警机制和对应评估的文献综述开展深入研究。对网络舆情基本问题进行研究,舆情产生后可有多种演化方式,舆情5维特征决定了舆情的产生、发展和演化,把引发实现行动作为网络舆情的末端不利于应对处理;对网络舆情演化规律的理论及分类进行研究,主要归纳为基于专题舆情、舆情主体、信息传播和网络行为的网络舆情演化机制研究;对网络舆情预警的理论及技术进行研究,核心技术是自然语言处理,涵盖舆情主题、舆情内容、传播过程、传播媒介、舆情受众的指标体系各有侧重并不完整;对网络舆情应对的理论及评估进行研究,论述网络舆情的应对做法较多,研究系统性网络舆情应对方法的相对较少。最后针对网络舆情演化、预警和应对理论的研究综述,提出相应的具体研究方法。

This paper reviews the status of the researches on evolution of Internet public opinion, early warning mechanism and corresponding evaluation at home and abroad. It studies the basic problems of public opinion on the Internet, and introduces a variety of ways of evolution after the public opinion is produced. The characteristics of public opinion in five dimensions determine the emergence, development and evolution of public opinions. And it is not recommendable to regard action as the consequence of the public opinion on the Internet. It summarizes the theory and classification of the evolution law of the network public opinions, according to the themes, public opinion subjects, information dissemination and network behavior. For the early warning, natural language processing is the core technology but the index systems that cover public opinion themes, public opinion content, communication process, media and public opinion audience can be of different focuses wheras each system can be incomplete. For researches on solutions, they emphasizes specific ways rather than the systematic methods. Finally, the paper puts forward a series of specific research methods that addresses the issues of public opinion evolution on the Internet, its early warning and coping theory.