预期契合视角下公共政策不连续的执行效应

The Implementation Effects of Public Policy Discontinuity from the Perspective of Anticipation

"公共政策不连续"是指由于公共政策目标、内容、执行方式或评价标准的变动,导致政策内容及其执行在时间上的前后差异。基于政策变动程度和预期契合程度两个维度,政策不连续可以分为四种类型:逆预期政策调整、逆预期政策转向、顺预期政策调整和顺预期政策转向,它们会对政策执行者和政策执行对象的行为结果和行为选择分别产生不同的效应。为了降低由政策变动导致政策不连续的各种负面效应,需要在政策制定、政策执行、政策调整、执行评价等方面采取一系列相应措施。

Discontinuity of public policy means the changes in public policy objectives,contents,methods of execution,or evaluation criteria which lead to the differences between earlier and latter policies.Based on the degree of policy change and the degree of agreement between the anticipation and the policy change,the discontinuity of policy can be divided into four types:the anti-expected adjustment of policies;the anti-expected turning of policies;the expected adjustment of policy;the expected turning of policies.These discontinuities of policies produce effects to the past behavior results and the behavior choices of the policy executors and the policy objects.In order to reduce the negative effects of policy discontinuity caused by policy changes,a series of measures should be taken in the formulation,implementation,adjustment,and evaluation of policies.