虚实相融的中美贸易战——重重假象背后美国的真实战略意图

The Real Intentions of America behind the Trade War

今年以来,特朗普主动挑起贸易战,并不断推动事态升级,引发了各界的广泛关注。这次贸易战是美国精心设计的对华打击战略中的重要组成部分,具备很强的迷惑性,仅在贸易框架内思考贸易战将无法洞察美国更深层次的战略意图。中美贸易战的本质是金融战,核心思路是在上游为中国制造输入性通货膨胀,抬高企业成本,同时在下游堵死中国企业成本国际转移的渠道,最终打击中国企业利润。美国寄希望于引爆中国非金融企业债务风险,从而为中国制造一次大规模金融危机,才能在较长时间维度内有效遏制住中国崛起势头。但美国低估了中国政府的资源调动能力,短期内无法达成战略目标,而中美贸易战实际上也加剧了自身的金融风险,若美国坚持大规模贸易战,美国极有可能再一次爆发大规模金融危机。

Since the beginning of this year,Trump has taken the initiative to provoke a trade war,and has continuously promoted the escalation of events,which has aroused widespread concern.This trade war is an important part of the US’well-designed strategy against China.Only thinking about trade wars within the trade framework will not see the deeper strategic intentions of the United States.The essence of the Sino-US trade war is financial warfare.The core idea is to create input inflation for China in the upstream,raise the cost of enterprises.And at the same time,itwill block the international transfer of Chinese enterprises’ costs in the downstream.Trade war ultimately attack the profits of Chinese enterprises.The United States hopes to detonate China’s non-financial corporate debt risks,thereby creating a large-scale financial crisis for China,in order to effectively curb China’s rising momentum in a longer period of time.However,the United States underestimated the Chinese government’s ability to mobilize resources and could not achieve strategic goals in the short term.The Sino-US trade war actually exacerbated its own financial risks.As a result,the United States is likely to have another largescale financial crisis.