中亚地区安全新态势与丝绸之路经济带建设:互动与前景

The New Security Situation in Central Asia and the Silk Road Economic Belt Construction:Interaction and Prospects

自2013年以来,虽然面临各类非传统安全威胁不断上升,周边安全局势日益复杂化等不利因素,但中亚地区总体保持较高程度的社会政治稳定,非传统安全风险并未转化成实质性破坏力。这一方面得益于中亚国家对适合本国国情发展之路的探索取得阶段性成功,另一方面也得益于大国支持和对保持本地区稳定的共识,毕竟作为一个亚欧大陆腹地的地缘政治权力角逐场,外部因素对本地区安全稳定影响甚大。此外,一个新的对中亚地区安全走势可能构成深远影响的因素正在逐步形成——丝绸之路经济带建设与中亚各国发展战略的成功对接,并由此而获得的早期收益对维护本地区国家社会政治稳定,抵御外部风险发挥的正效应正在逐步显现,与此同时,相对滞后的中亚国家间合作也由此获得新的动力重新活跃起来,合作共赢的理念正在不断得到中亚国家的认同与实践,这或许成为这一长期处于安全脆弱期的区域获得长期稳定和平的新机遇。

Despite the rising non-traditional threats and more complex security challenges since 2013,Central Asia has remained relatively stable in general and those non-traditional security threats have not transferred into real destroying forces.This situation has benefited from two things:one being the phrasal success achieved by Central Asia countries in their exploration for development paths that suit their respective national situations,and the other being the consensus reached among great powers in maintaining regional stability in Central Asia.After all,as a battle field for geopolitical powers,external factors significantly affect the security situation in this region.Besides,a new factor is gradually forming that may profoundly influence the security situation in Central Asia,specifically,the,successful connection of the Silk Road Economic Belt construction to the developing strategies of the countries in this region.The early positive effects of this connection are gradually emerging,and they are securing the social and political stability in Central Asia and resisting the risks from outside.Meanwhile,the cooperation between relatively underdeveloped countries in Central Asia has been revitalized,as the concept of win-win cooperation has'been recognized in these countries.This may help.bring peace and stability to this region that has long been plagued by security problems.