服务业集聚对城市生产率的贡献存在拐点吗?——来自中国275个地级及以上城市的证据

Is There a Turning Point in the Contribution of Service Agglomeration to Urban Productivity:Evidence from 275 Cities at Prefecture Level or Above in China

服务业对城市经济的发展至关重要,然而阶段性作用的差异将影响城市服务业的布局策略。随着城市规模体量逐渐增大,服务业的集聚度也日益提升,集聚程度达到一定水平将引发"拥塞效应"。本文尝试引入城市类型这一新视角,在提出"总体拐点存在论"和"分类型拐点差异论"的基础上,系统阐释服务业集聚对城市生产率作用的阶段性及区域性差异,并采用中国1999-2015年275个地级及以上城市的面板数据进行实证检验。研究结果表明:服务业集聚对城市生产率的贡献存在拐点;沿海城市、省会城市拐点后的抑制效应相对平缓,而非沿海城市、非省会城市则更加剧烈;资源型城市拐点前后集聚效应变动均较为平稳。城市服务业集聚不宜作为城市生产率提高的长效作用机制,寻求新的集聚模式、经济增长极对于提高城市生产率变得更加迫切。

The service industry is very important to the development of urban economy,but the difference of stage effect will affect the layout strategy of service industry in the city.With the increase of the city size,the agglomeration degree of service industry is also increasing and the "congestion effect"will appear when the degree of agglomeration reaches a certain level.Introducing the new angle of city type,based on putting forward "general inflection point ontology"and "type inflection point difference theory",we give a systematic interpretation to convergent stage and regional differences of the service industry's role on urban productivity.Meanwhile,we test this theoretical analysis with the panel data of 275 cities at prefecture level or above from 1999 to 2015in China.The research shows that the service agglomeration has an inflection point to the contribution of urban productivity.The restraining effect of coastal cities and provincial capitals is relatively fiat,but not in coastal and non-provincial capitals.The change of agglomeration effect is stable around the turning point for resource -based cities .Urban service industry's agglomeration shouldn't be regarded as a long-acting mechanism of the urban productivity,while looking for new cluster patterns and economic growth poles for improving urban productivity gets more compelling.