一种电网投资评价模型建立与仿真

Establishment and simulation of investment evaluation model for distribution network

电网投资规模较大,涉及的环节和影响因素较多,具有较大的风险。因此,如何对其进行合理而客观的评估是国家和电网企业防范投资风险与可持续发展的关键。文中针对当前电网投资评价方法主观性强、效果不理想的问题,从投资收益和决策两个角度构建了评价指标体系。基于三角模糊数,通过引入调整因子和Delphi法量化了专家评判的模糊程度,建立了一套较为客观的电网投资评价模型。经过实例仿真与分析后发现,该模型对电网投资的评价效果公正而有效且可操作性强,能够弥补当前主流的电网投资评价方法主观性过强的问题。并能为电网投资的决策调整提供指导,具有一定的实用价值。

Distribution network investment has the characteristics of large scale,complicated procedures and influencing factors as well as relatively high risks.Therefore,how to carry out a reasonable and objective assessment is the key for the nation and power network enterprises to prevent investment risks and develop sustainable.Herein,aiming to solve the strongly subjective and less effective problem of current evaluation method for distribution network investment,an evaluation index system is proposed firstly from the perspective of investment returns and investment decision.Besides,based on the triangular fuzzy number,the adjustment factors and Delphi method are introduced to quantify the fuzzy level of the expert evaluation,and a relatively objective investment evaluation model for distribution network is established in this thesis.After the example simulation and analysis,it can be clearly found that the evaluation effect of the model is objective and effective with high operability.Additionally,it can effectively make up for the strongly subjective shortcomings of current evaluation method for distribution network investment and provide the practical value for the adjustment of distribution network investment.