出口市场多元化对中国水产品出口贸易的影响——基于协整检验和ECM模型的实证研究

Impact of export diversification on fish and seafood export:empirical research based on co-integration test and ECM model

为研究水产品出口市场多元化对水产品出口贸易的影响,利用UN COMTRADE的水产品出口和渔业总产值、汇率数据,采用E-G协整检验和误差修正模型实证检验了变量之间的关系。结果表明,中国水产品出口市场集中度降低,出口市场多元化水平提高;长期内出口市场多元化、人民币贬值、渔业经济增长促进出口增加;短期内出口市场多元化、人民币贬值对水产品出口有负向作用,渔业经济增长对水产品出口有正向影响。

Using the data of fish and seafood export,the paper analyzes the impact of export geographic concentration on fish and seafood export with the E-G co-integration test and ECM model.The results show that the export geographic concentration is decreasing, which also implies the export diversification is increasing.In long term,export diversification,RMB exchange rate depreciation and fishery industry growth have positive effect on fish and seafood export.In short term,the former two have negative effect on the export and the fishery growth still affect the export positively.