极地海洋环境评价理论与方法初探

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON POLAR MARINE ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT THEORY AND METHOD

极地海洋环境评价对于极地海洋生态系统保护尤为重要。由于对极地极端恶劣环境的监测能力不足,缺乏长期连续监测数据,极地海洋环境评价变得异常困难。针对目前极地海洋环境评价目标和评价因子均缺乏的情况,在已有文献基础上,本文提出了海水表层叶绿素浓度、海冰覆盖范围、海水表层温度和盐度四个极地海洋环境决定因子,分析了海冰覆盖范围与月份之间高度拟合的三次多项式分布关系,并在此基础上构建了极地海洋环境评价模型,最后提出了一种验证该模型的方法。基于第30、31、32次南极科考获取的海水表层叶绿素浓度、温度、盐度数据以及美国国家冰雪数据中心提供的对应时间内的海冰覆盖范围数据对提出的评价模型和方法进行了验证,实验结果表明:该评价模型及其验证方法具有有效性,根据评价结果能判定某个时间段内极地海洋环境相对于基准时间的变化趋势。

Marine environmental assessment is critical for marine ecosystem protection.Because of the harsh en- vironment and lack of continuous monitoring data,it is extremely difficult to evaluate the polar marine environment.In view of the lack of assessment criteria specific for the polar marine environment,this study conducted a literature review and examined four characteristics of the polar marine environment:sea surface chlorophyll concentration,sea ice extent,sea surface temperature and salinity.A polar marine environmental assessment model is proposed,integrating the four characteristics as independent variables in a cubic polynomial function to describe the relationship between sea ice extent and month of the year.A validation method is presented and was used to test and verify the assessment model using sea surface chlorophyll concentration,temperature and salinity data collected on the 30th,31st,and 32nd Chinese National Antarctic Research Expeditions and sea ice extent data downloaded from the National Snow and Ice Data Center of the United States.Results demonstrated the effectiveness of the assessment model and its validation method,and showed that the model can be used to determine the trend of polar marine environments relative to specified baselines.