云南省边境地区登革热跨境输入传播风险评估指标体系的构建

Risk assessment indicator system for cross-border imported dengue fever in Yunnan border area

目的构建云南省边境地区登革热跨境输入风险评估指标体系,为该病跨境输入传播的预防控制提供科学依据和参考。方法采用定性和定量研究相结合的方法,首先运用文献检索、小组讨论及专家汇商法初步拟定初始指标体系框架,然后通过层次分析法和德尔菲法构建风险评估指标及其权重。结果两轮专家咨询的积极系数均为100%;专家权威系数的均数分别为0.836 1±0.074 3、0.861 1±0.055 7,变异系数均数分别为0.297 3±0.169 7和0.158 6±0.052 3;专家意见协调系数分别为0.678(χ2=573.694,P<0.05)和0.691(χ2=577.390,P<0.05)。经过2轮专家咨询,最终建立了包含4个一级指标,10个二级指标和41个三级指标的云南省边境地区登革热跨境输入风险评估指标体系。结论初步构建了云南省边境地区登革热跨境输入风险评估指标体系,为该病的跨境输入传播风险评估和边境地区的风险管理提供了参考依据。

Objective To establish a risk assessment indicator system for cross-border imported dengue fever in Yunnan province,and to provide scientific evidence and reference for the prevention and control of cross border transmission of dengue fever.Methods Qualitative and quantitative research combining the first literature retrieval research,group discussion and expert consultation tentatively set the original indicator system framework,and then through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)and Delphi method constructed the risk assessment indicator and its weight.Results The positive coefficient of the 2-round of expert consultation was 100%;the average expert authority indices were 0.836 1±0.074 3,0.861 1 ±0.055 7;the mean coefficient of variation was 0.2973±0.169 7,0.158 6 ±0.052 3;expert opinion coordination coefficient was 0.678 (x^2=573.694,P<0.05)and 0.691 (x^2=577.390,P<0.05).After two rounds of expert consultation,the risk assessment indicator system for imported dengue fever in the border areas of Yunnan province was established,including 4 of first level indicators,10 of two level indicators and 41 of three level indicators.Conclusion Preliminary establishment of the risk assessment indicator system for cross-border imported dengue fever in the border areas of Yunnan.The indicator system provides a reference for carrying out risk assessment of dengue transmission,and provided a scientific basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in border areas.