中国县域农业劳动力变化与农业经济发展的时空耦合及其对乡村振兴的启示

Spatio-temporal coupling relationship between agricultural labor changes and agricultural economic development at county level in China and its implications for rural revitalization

基于中国县域1991年、2000年、2010年3期截面数据,利用定量和GIS空间分析法,研究了在快速城镇化背景下,农业劳动力变化与农业经济发展的耦合特征和时空格局。结果表明:(1) 1991-2010年中国县域农业劳动力总体呈减少趋势且减少幅度逐渐增加,1991-2000年、2000-2010年分别减少4.91%和15.50%;从空间分布上看,中国农业劳动力数量呈"东减西增"的空间演变特征。(2) 1991-2010中国县域农业经济呈持续增长态势,总量增长140.13%,但区域差异明显;农业产值占区域GDP的比重逐渐减小,呈现出东低西高的分布特征。(3)产劳弹性系数的耦合类型主要以农业经济、农业劳动力"同增"的增长型和农业经济增长、农业劳动力减少的集约型为主,分别分布在中国的西北和东南部地区;耦合类型为"滞后型""衰落型"和"衰退型"的区域与中国贫困发生率高的地域较为吻合,1991-2010年各耦合类型整体呈良性发展态势。最后根据产劳弹性系数的耦合类型和空间分布特征,提出促进一二三产融合发展和乡村经济振兴的政策建议。

Based on the 1991,2000and 2010 panel data at county level in China,this paper analyzes the coupling characteristics and spatio-temporal pattern of agricultural economic development and agricultural labor changes under rapid urbanization by using the quantitative and GIS spatial analysis methods.The results showed that:(1)During 1991-2010,China's agricultural labor at county level showed a decreasing trend,down 4.91% and 15.50%, respectively,from 1991to 2000 and 2000 to 2010;from the perspective of spatial distribution, the quantity of agricultural labor in China is characterized by the spatial evolution of "decreasing eastward and increasing westward".(2)During 1991-2010,China's agricultural economy at county level showed a sustained growth trend,with a total increase of 140.13%, but the regional differences were obvious.The proportion of agricultural output in the regional GDP gradually decreased and showed the characteristics of decreasing in the eastern region and increasing in the western region.(3)The coupling types of economic-labor elasticity coefficient are mainly the increasing type and intensive type,representing the growth of agricultural economy and labor,respectively;the growth of agricultural economy and the reduction of agricultural labor were observed in the northwest and southeast of China,respectively.The coupling types of "retarded","fading"and "declining"regions are more in line with the high incidence of poverty in China;from 1991 to 2010,the coupling types presented a positive trend.Finally,based on the coupling types and spatial distribution of economic-labor elasticity coefficient,some policy suggestions are put forward to promote the integration of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries and the revitalization of rural economy.