基于KS检验的铁路车站日常货运量预测

Daily Freight Volume Prediction of Railway Station Based on KS Test

科学预测货运量对于铁路现场生产和中长期规划具有重要意义。首先,针对铁路日常货运量的动态性和不确定性将其视为随机变量,其次选用正态分布、对数正态分布、Weibull分布和Gamma分布进行拟合,然后运用Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验(KS检验)方法评价拟合效果并确定最佳分布,进而以置信区间形式进行预测。最后,结合黄骅港站的每天接受重车的运量数据进行计算,验证了方法的实用性和有效性。

It is of great significance to accurately predict daily freight volume for practical operation and medium-, long-term planning of the railway. First of all, the freight volume was taken as a random variable according to its dynamics and uncertainty. Followed by the selection alternative distributions to fit, such as normal, lognormal, Weibull and gamma, Kolmogorov-Smirnov(KS) test was used to evaluate the fitting effect and to determine the best distribution. Based on this, the confidence interval was adopted to predict. Finally, with Huanghua port station case was calculate to validate the practicability and effectiveness of the method.