北京市卫生资源投入对居民健康影响的动态计量分析

Dynamic econometrical analysis on effects of health resources inputs on residents health in Beijing

目的了解北京市卫生资源投入现状,分析卫生资源投入影响健康产出的大小和方向。方法为避免时间序列的“伪回归”,收集北京市相关指标宏观统计数据,采用协整检验与误差修正模型方法,分析资源投入和医疗卫生需求对健康产出的影响。结果千人均实有床位数、政府卫生支出、居民可支配收入对健康产出具有正向影响,医护比和人口抚养比对健康产出具有负向影响,但医护比和政府卫生支出差异导致的健康产出差异无统计学意义。结论卫生资源投入的增加促进健康状况改善,但应进一步改善区域间卫生资源配置的均衡性;应进一步加强护理人员培养,提高卫生人力资源配置效率;提高政府卫生支出水平,促进连续性医疗服务体系的建立和完善。

Objective To learn the present status of health resources in Beijing and analyze the scale and direction of the impacts of health resources inputs on health outputs. Methods To avoid spurious regression of time sequence, macro statistics of health indicators were collected from four districts, with co-integration test and error correction model used, to analyze the impacts of health resources inputs and health demands on residents′ health outputs. Results The indicators of the number of hospital beds per thousand people, government health expenditure and disposable income of residents had positive influence on health outputs, while the ratio of doctor and nurse, and the dependency ratio of population were the two negative impacts on health. But there was no significant difference between these two negative effect indicators. Conclusions Health improvement can be promoted by increased medical and health resources, but better balance of health resources allocation is imperative among regions. More nursing personnel should be trained in order to improve the efficiency of human resource for health. The government health expenditure should be improved so as to build continuous medical service system.