中国工业企业最优出口阈值的估计——基于非参的ROC方法

Estimation of Optimal Export Threshold of Industrial Enterprises in China——Based on Nonparametric ROC Method

本文利用1998—2007年的中国工业企业数据,采用非参的ROC方法测算了中国工业企业的最优出口阈值,并进一步讨论了企业最优出口阈值的动态变迁。研究结果表明:在全样本下,最优出口阈值的估计值为-0. 624;分行业的估计结果表明劳动密集型行业的出口门槛较高,资本、技术密集型行业次之,采掘业与公用事业行业较低;分地区的估计结果表明东部地区的出口门槛较高,中部地区次之,西部地区较低;出口门槛的动态变迁分析表明,出口门槛的演进轨迹与外贸宏观环境紧密相关,主要的外贸宏观环境包括1997年亚洲金融危机、2001年的中国入世、对外贸易经营者登记备案制的实施、WTO成员享有的保留条款。

This paper estimates firms’ optimal export threshold and investigates the evolution of firms’ optimal export threshold by utilizing the nonparametric ROC method and employing the data of industrial firms in China during 1998 and 2007. The conclusions are as follows. First,the optimal threshold for export is estimated at-0. 624 with the full sample. Second,among the sectors,the labor-intensive industry has the highest export threshold,followed by the capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries,and the mining industry and public utility. Third,among the provinces,the eastern provinces have the highest export threshold,followed by the central provinces and the western provinces.Fourth,the evolution path of optimal export threshold is closely related to the macro environments of foreign trade,such as the Southeast Asian financial crisis in 1997,China’ s accession to WTO in 2001,the implementation of registration and record system for enterprises engaged in export trade,and the reservation clauses of WTO members.