中国最终需求对从美日韩三国进口的诱发效应研究——基于投入产出的分析

Induced Effect on Imports from the United States,Japan,and South Korea by China's Final Demand——Based on Input-Output Analysis

本文构建了中国对他国的进口非竞争投入产出表,提出了最终需求对不同行业进口诱发效应的测度方法,考察了中国最终需求对从美国、日本、韩国(以下简称美日韩三国)进口诱发效应的不同作用和行业分布。本文主要结论如下:存货增加与贵重物品净值以及固定资本形成对从美日韩三国进口的诱发效应相对更强;家庭最终消费和政府最终消费对从美国进口的诱发效应最大,对从日本进口的诱发效应最小;固定资本形成、出口、存货增加与贵重物品净值对从韩国进口的诱发效应最大,对从美国进口的诱发效应的最小;最终需求对从美日韩三国56个进口行业所产生的进口诱发效应主要集中在计算机—电子产品及光学产品制造行业等少数几个行业上。相对来说,中国最终需求对从美国进口的诱发能力较强的行业比较多元化,而对从日本进口的诱发能力较强的行业全部集中在制造业。因此,要充分分析和利用最终需求对从不同国家进口的诱发效应,实现中国进口贸易结构的优化。

This paper constructs the non-competitive input-output table of other countries’ import influenced by China,proposes the method to measure the induced effect on the import of different industries by the final demand,and investigates into the different effects and industry distribution of the induced effect on imports from the United States,Japan,and South Korea by China’ s final demand. Major findings are as below: changes in inventories and valuables and gross fixed capital formation have a relatively strong induced effect on the imports from the United States,Japan,and South Korea. Final consumption expenditure by households and final consumption expenditure by government have the biggest induced effect on the import from the United States and the smallest effect on Japan. Gross fixed capital formation,export and changes in inventories and valuables have the biggest induced effect on the import from South Korea and the smallest effect on the United States. The final demand’ s induced effect on the import of 56 industries from the United States,Japan,and South Korea concentrates on manufacture of computers,electronic and optical products and several other minor industries. China’ s final demand has a relatively strong induced effect on the import of diverse industries from the United States,while the effect focuses exclusively on the manufacturing sector from Japan. Therefore,it is essential to fully analyze and take advantage of the induced effect by China’ s final demand on the import of different countries to achieve the optimization of China’ s import trade structure.