基于Vague集的矿井瓦斯爆炸应急救援风险决策评价

Risk Decision Evaluation for Emergency Rescue of Mine Gas Explosion Based on Vague Set

矿井瓦斯爆炸应急救援对减少灾害所造成的损失有着重要的意义,其风险评价属于不确定环境下的多目标决策问题。针对已有研究未考虑反面信息及犹豫信息对结果的影响,存在评价缺乏一定的客观性和普适性的缺陷。在对王家岭矿井瓦斯爆炸风险评价指标体系分析基础上,引入了决策者的风险偏好,使用改进的考虑犹豫度的Vague集模糊熵,建立1个新的基于Vague集的矿井瓦斯爆炸应急救援风险决策评价模型。实证分析表明,建立的模型综合考虑了正面信息和反面信息对决策结果的影响,评价结果与基本的应急预案评价相符,为煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险的评价依据,对预防瓦斯爆炸以及救援起到一定的指导意义。

The emergency rescue of mine gas explosion is of great significance to reduce the loss caused by the disasters, and its risk assessment is a multi-objective decision problem under the uncertain environment. Aiming at that some studies have not considered the influence of negative information and hesitant information on the results, and there is a lack of objectivity and universality in the evaluation. Based on the analysis of the risk evaluation index system of the gas explosion in Wangjialing mine,introducing the risk preference of the decision-makers, using the improved hesitancy degrees of fuzzy entropy of Vague sets, a new risk decision evaluation model of mine gas explosion emergency rescue based on Vague set is established. The empirical analysis shows that the established model considers the impact of positive and negative information on the result of decision-making. The evaluation result is consistent with basic emergency plans evaluation. It is the basis for the evaluation of the coal mine gas explosion risk, and has a certain guiding significance for the prevention of gas explosion and rescue.