中国西部大开发政策净效应评估

Net Effect Evaluation on China’s Western Development Policy

文章基于1994-2015年27个省市的面板数据,利用双重差分法(DID)评估了西部大开发对西部地区经济增长的净效应。研究得出:西部大开发提升了地区工业化水平、固定资产投资水平和外商投资水平,使得西部省份的经济增长率提高了4.66百分点,但政策效果不具有动态持续性。因此,为了保持和扩大西部大开发政策的正向净效应,政府应当进一步深化政策的执行;在增加实物资本投入的同时,也需要提高教育水平并加强产业结构调整和升级。

Based on the panel data of 27 provinces and cities from 1994 to 2015, this paper uses the difference-in-difference method(DID) to estimate the net effect of the Great Western Development Strategy on the economic growth of the western region. The study shows that the implementation of the Western Development policy has raised the level of industrialization, fixed asset investment and foreign investment in the region, and increased the economic growth rate of western provinces by 4.66 percentage points, but policy effects are not dynamically sustainable. Therefore, in order to maintain and expand the positive net effect of the Western Development policy, the government should further deepen the implementation of the policy. While increasing the input of physical capital, it is also necessary to improve education level and strengthen the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure.