地方政府隐性债务的实质、规模与风险研究

Study on the Nature, Scale and Risk of Implicit Debt of Local Governments

近年来,地方政府违规举债方式多、隐蔽性强、规模大,导致隐性债务底数不清、风险累积较大,造成监管与治理难。隐性债务呈现形态多样化、复杂化趋势,识别要坚持"穿透"、"实质重于形式"原则,从最终财政资金偿还这一本质及财政预算管理来界定。隐性债务实质是指法定政府债务限额之外,直接约定或承诺以财政资金偿还,或违法提供担保,或以承担救助责任等方式举借的债务或表外负债。基于有息负债及债务矩阵视角的预估表明,地方政府债务风险总体可控,但未来举债空间有限,局部风险、流动性风险较为突出。短期看,关键要遏制隐性债务增量、妥善缓释存量债务风险。但长期看,更应关注债务的投资效率、债务可持续及相应制度安排。

In recent years,local governments have borrowed money illegally in many ways,with strong concealment and large scale,leading to a large accumulation of hidden debt risk and difficult regulation and governance.Implicit debt shows a trend of diversification and complication.Identification on implicit debt should adhere to the principles of penetration and substance-over-form,and it should define implicit debt from the essence of the ultimate repayment responsibility of fiscal fund and fiscal budget management.The essence of implicit debt refers to the debt or off-balance sheet liabilities that are directly agreed or promised to be repaid with financial funds,or provided with guarantee in violation of the law,or borrowed by means of assuming the rescue responsibility.According to the current scale forecast from the perspective of interest-bearing liabilities and debt matrix,the debt risk of local governments is generally controllable,but the future borrowing space is limited, partial risk and liquidity risks are large.In the short term,the key is to curb the growth of implicit debt and slow down stock debt risk.But in the long run,more attention should be paid to the investment efficiency of debt,debt sustainability and corresponding institutional arrangements.